World Affairs Council Tacoma’s conversation on trade with China
By Morf Morford
Tacoma Daily Index
If you want to know more about the implications, repercussions and history of trade between the USA and China, World Affairs Council Tacoma –http://www.wactacoma.com/about – has a rare opportunity for you.
On Wednesday, March 11, 2020 at 7 PM – 8:15 PM, at The Evergreen State College Tacoma at 1210 6th Ave, Tacoma, WA 98405 you can be part of a conversation with someone who has been involved with trade with China for many years.
The talk is free and open to the public.
Mike Fowler is a local contact and currently serves as Senior Trade Consultant at the World Trade Center Tacoma. He will discuss an ongoing trade conflict between the USA and China, including the Phase I deal, and its impact on the Pacific Northwest region.
What are those impacts and why should any of us care about them?
No matter what our industry or state of employment, our trade relations impact us all. If you work, buy or sell, eat or use a smart phone, you intersect with China on a near constant basis.
Barring any major catastrophe, China’s international trade consistently grows by about 50% each year.
In the greater Tacoma area this impacts everything from work, income and jobs at The Port of Tacoma to the price and availability of everything from clothing and car parts to tools.
And when it comes to online sales, China is the source of more than 40% of world wide online sales. and that rate is expected to increase.
Alibaba, China’s answer to Amazon, has been growing at about twice the rate of its American counterpart for several years now – and thanks to its far larger domestic customer base will increase even faster in the next few years.
Alibaba and Amazon may be vectors of online sales, but they have very different business models. Alibaba does not have “fulfillment centers” and does no direct sales. Alibaba acts purely as a intermediary and connects buyers and sellers.
China’s domestic rate of economic growth is consistently about double the rate of growth of the USA, if not more – and in most years it is usually far more.
In the year 2000, for example, 4% of Chinese were considered middle class. By 2022 more than 75% of Chinese citizens will be considered middle class – with enough discretionary income to fuel economic growth for decades – at least.
The USA and China are the world’s two largest economies. Any glitch in China’s economy – or our trade relationship – has massive, and lingering effects across our economy.
As you can see from the UNCTAD chart, the answer to the question of who benefits from US-China tariffs and trade uncertainty is Europe, Mexico, Japan, and Canada, among many others. In other words virtually everyone except the USA.
UNCTAD also estimates that a tariff increase of 10% to 25% will cost the average family about $830 each year.
The more we know about our mutual history and our ever-more complicated economy and technological interdependence, the more prepared we will be to face any challenges and turn them into opportunities.
Our futures are deeply intertwined, the more we know about our history, priorities and potential, the better off we all will be.
See you there.
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A little more about Mike Fowler
Mike is fluent in Chinese and Japanese and has extensive experience as a consultant assisting US firms access Asian markets. Chair Emeritus of the Pacific Northwest International Trade Alliance, he currently serves on the Board of Directors of World Affairs Council of Tacoma. A former Senior Editor of Business Tokyo magazine, Mike holds a Master of Arts in International Relations from Sophia University Graduate School of Comparative Culture in Tokyo and a Bachelor of Arts in Chinese from the University of Hawaii at Manoa.
