Some people make things happen, some watch things happen, while others wonder what has happened
By Morf Morford
Tacoma Daily Index
At some level, I think we all knew 2020 would be a crazy year.
From the global level to our local neighborhoods, change – and unforeseen challenges – seem to be around every corner.
Yes, that (for the most part) has always been true, but the stakes are vastly higher and in our inter-connected culture and economy, rumors and viruses travel far faster than was possible just a few years ago.
Several years ago I had a focus on the academic discipline of futurism – the study of what could/should or might happen in the relatively foreseeable future.
Much of the focus in such an area is on what we don’t want to happen.
In other words, what can we do to prevent, delay or at least mitigate the negative consequences of decisions made today – or perhaps those actions done before us by those of previous generations.
It’s a vast topic that touches everything from tax structures and urban design to environmental policies and vaccinations.
Despite its range of dimensions, the principle is quite simple; what can we do now that future generations will thank us for – as opposed to curse us.
It’s an invigorating area of study. Every issue is looked at through the lens of the potential positives and negatives of “what if”.
No issue or choice, public or private, stands alone in time. Every plastic bag, every political philosophy, every high tech device comes from somewhere and goes somewhere else or leaves its impact in some form long after we see it.
In some ways, history, with a constant change of costumes, re-enacts the same moves, themes, struggles, fears and obsessions.
Empires rise and fall – as do markets and political and economic systems.
Political or religious or economic messiahs come and go. They make their promises, dazzle their followers, promote their message and, one way or another, leave the world stage.
Fortunes are made and lost.
It’s all a crazy twirl of the study of where past cultures have prevailed, thrived, collapsed and, for the most part, evaporated, at least from their sphere of power and influence.
Assyrians, Babylonians, Mayans and many more have left their mark (or not).
What can we learn from them? What must we learn from them?
We Americans imagine ourselves impervious to many things – including history.
Most of us are convinced that we, our nation, our political system, our legal process and our economic system was born on, and permanently belongs on, a predestined pedestal.
This view minimizes, trivializes, even dismisses the work, the vision and the sacrifice of those Founding Fathers – and Mothers – who gave their all for a posterity they would never know.
And their vision for the future did come out of their own heads – it came from vigorous discussion and diligent study of previous historical models.
Some of these models were widely known at the time – like Roman Law and the British judicial system, others were not so widely known, like the Iroquois Confederacy.
Patching together a network of states with different interests, economies and religious backgrounds (virtually all of the 13 colonies were under religious charters – Maryland was Catholic, Pennsylvania was Quaker, Virginia was Anglican, etc. Only Rhode Island advocated freedom of religion, www.gwirf.org/roger-williams-rhode-island-birthplace-of-religious-freedom/).
Ben Franklin, among others, thought we might learn from non-European examples – even those in North America long before European contact.
This is not widely known, but in 1988, the U.S. Senate paid tribute with a resolution (1*) that said, “The confederation of the original 13 colonies into one republic was influenced by the political system developed by the Iroquois Confederacy, as were many of the democratic principles which were incorporated into the constitution itself.”
My point with all this is that history – in all its dimensions is made and we live with the repercussion – positive or negative – for generations if not millennia.
Looking back can allow and equip us to look forward. We can see patterns and trends not always immediately visible to the untrained eye.
As I mentioned at the beginning, studying the future is initially invigorating – but it tends to be ultimately demoralizing because those in power rarely care about – or even notice the trajectory they have embraced.
The well-worn phrase Some people make things happen, some watch things happen, while others wonder what has happened could be the motto of our times.
As I write this, in mid-March, stock markets, from Britain to Japan to Australia fell as much as 7% in a matter of hours, and are off 20% over the previous few weeks. Oil prices crashed as low as $27 (per barrel) earlier and were down by nearly 50% from just 2 weeks before.
This is all shocking – especially to our 401(k) portfolios.
But it isn’t surprising, or at least it shouldn’t be. Most people I know saw this coming months, if not years ago.
Unsustainable sovereign debt (in almost every nation), overvalued financial markets, inflated housing prices, unfunded pensions, unprecedented household and individual debt (including student debt) have been hovering over our economy like fractured pillars ready to fail under the slightest new stress factor.
The trick to survival – as an individual, a business or a nation – is to see what’s coming before it hits you.
Market collapses and pandemics take years to coalesce. They are both easily preventable in their early stages – and rage destructively if not recognized and dealt with.
Economic collapses and virus have their own life spans – they too prevail, thrive, collapse and, for the most part, evaporate – until their turn comes again – as it always does.
Humanity will prevail against storm and oppression – and yes, pesky little viruses – and we will be stronger for the experience. As the traditional saying goes – They tried to bury us. They didn’t know we were seeds.
(1*) The full text can be seen here- https://www.senate.gov/reference/resources/pdf/hconres331.pdf
